The Case for Leading from a Blank Sheet

What did Henry Ford mean by the observation?

If you need a machine and don’t buy it, then you will ultimately find that you have paid for it and don’t have it.

Clayton Christensen explained this apparent paradox in his examination of ‘marginal thinking’ as follows:

Every time an executive in an established company needs to make an investment decision, there are two alternatives on the menu. The first is the full cost of making something completely new. The second is to leverage what already exists. Almost always, the marginal-cost argument overwhelms the full-cost. When there is competition, and this thinking causes established companies to continue to use what they already have in place, they pay far more than the full cost—because the company loses its competitiveness.

Christensen uses the example of the once giant video rental company Blockbuster who made the decision not to follow the fledgling Netflix and develop a streaming service because the marginal returns from their existing business made investing in a new streaming look unattractive. Today Blockbuster doesn’t exist, and we are all streaming Netflix.

Thinking on a marginal basis can be extremely dangerous!

What can we learn from this?

The lesson is that we make better decisions when we see the future as a blank sheet. The challenge is to find the energy to think about the next step in isolation from all steps taken that got us to this point. Given a blank sheet; what is the best next step?

In a complex and unpredictable world –having the wherewithal, the fortitude and the energy to navigate forward with a blank sheet mentality is a key leadership competence.

The future is emergent – nothing is written. It is a blank sheet. Will we copy and paste what is already written or will we write a fresh script? Copy and paste may seem the expedient path but as is implicit in Henry Ford’s observation – reality will have its way with you regardless.

There is a sense that the world is at a crossroads. Pandemic, climate change or technology could pivot us towards one of multiple directions. There are no laws tantamount to the laws of physics that determine what happens next.

Facing into this world are two types of leadership. There is leadership that sees the future as known – the leader is an expert and their job is to give direction. This is leadership as usual (LAU). LAU is addicted to master plans – blueprints that promise creativity despite the obvious paradox implicit in that desire.

Then there is leadership into the unknown, knowing that the future can only be unknown. This type of leadership is relatively scarce and poorly understood. Leadership only truly manifests itself when you lead into the unknown, knowingly.

Because the future is inherently unpredictable, a planned strategy has palliative value only. Leaders must build the capacity to work with an emergent strategy – a strategy that engages with the emerging future, blank sheet by blank sheet – constantly working with contingency and complexity.

LAU wants safety and certainty. Ironically, the more LAU demands certainty the more it constrains its chance of a safer future. LAU pays lip service to innovation while visibly lacking the creativity or confidence required for innovation.

Leadership into the unknown is where learning occurs. It is where we map the future by experimenting with the present. Knowing that we don’t know the future unleashes a freedom to invent and to improvise. Giving up the need for certainty gives us the freedom to discover.

In my experience most organisations find this approach to strategy and leadership as scary and possibly crazy. Perhaps it is telling that the roots of the word leadership come from ‘to step forth’ or ‘to die’. Because leadership is about stepping from one world to the next – one world we know to another world we do not know: a blank sheet. While on the threshold, maybe we can sense what is out there, but we can only be sure after stepping forth.

The questions this poses about leadership include:

Does the leader have the courage to access their ignorance? This by definition is the space from which most value can be created.

Does the leader have the courage to access their discomfort? It is from this point that inspiring conversations are started.

Does the leader have the courage to access their vulnerability? This is where the relationships that can rise to the occasion are forged.

The truth is that what we seek to avoid could in fact be the source of greatest revelation and movement. We are most alive when we feel insecure.

It is from this position of humility that we can create the conditions for awareness-based change. Without a blank page to start with – the future will attempt to repeat the patterns and failures of the past.

Leading from the emerging future entails: immersing yourself in future pointing contexts. This requires stepping out of your usual environment and tuning in to what’s materialising in the wider system and deeply sensing what is now being called for. Then it requires putting experiments in place to explore this emerging future by doing.

To get to the future early watch for things that are changing exponentially. For example, I read recently that the lifting power of drones is doubling every nine months. What does this suggest about the future of logistics? Is there a tipping point emerging at which drone power will herald large-scale transformation? If there is, what are the implications? Are you ready?

Right now, the capacity to pay attention, make sense, act and change ahead of the curve is the holy grail of most organisations and if it is not, it should be.

This capacity requires being able to access a blank sheet mindset so that you can move seamlessly from a place of judgement to a place of exploration.

The learning needed to cultivate this mindset has the following features –it is experience-based; it puts learning-to-be before learning-to-do; it involves learning with others and it requires a regular practice.

The Originize Project

The Originize Project has provided the inspiration for this article by prototyping next stage thinking through conversation. Originize is premised on the need to build the mental muscle for transformation – co-creative, participatory, a community to deal with the current times – bootstrapping a way towards next stage thinking through action learning.

This is the type of leadership education we need to adopt, and if we don’t adopt it we will end up working even harder with more frustration and still not have the education we need.

Start with a blank sheet!

Read here about the value of crazy ideas to strategy.

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